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| Energy Trends in India |
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India’s per capita electricity consumption is 500 units where as it is 3,500 units, 12,000 units, 6,750 units and 767 units for China, USA, Japan and North Korea respectively.
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India’s coal consumption in 2011 was 721 million tones where as the production was, just 640 million tones. Hence the shortage is more than 11%.
- India’s crude oil consumption in 2011 was 3.4 million barrels per day where as the production was 0.8 million barrels per day. That is the shortage was whooping 76%!!!
- As per the stats of 2010, the total energy consumption was 21.92 quadrillion Btu where as the production was 15.29 quadrillion Btu. Hence the shortage was 30.25%!!! So we depend around one third of our energy requirements on imports where as USA 23.70% and China 10.4%
- Within last 10 years the increase in international coal prices is more than 3 times. Similarly the increase in natural gas prices is more than 2.5 times. The increase in crude oil prices is more than 3 times. Hence the rate of increase in prices is more than 11% compounding!!!
- At least to catch up with China, at current levels, we need to increase our Electricity production by seven times!! We are already depending on imported energy for more than 30% at our current levels. We don’t have unlimited domestic coal, crude oil and natural gas. The hydro capacity is already exhausted. Like all around the world, we have strong resistance for Nuclear energy. Hence we are only left with renewable sources like solar and wind.
- The Central Government is already moving in the direction of deregulation of the prices including petroleum products, rail charges, electricity tariffs, coal (imported for the time being), natural gas, etc. It is not far away to make the domestic coal prices at par with international coal prices like in the case of natural gas. Hence once the input subsidy for thermal and gas power plants are removed, the cost of power will be same or more than the solar power today. But these costs will keep increasing since these conventional power plants depend on fossil fuels which are scarce. On the average the percentage increase has been more than 11% each year.
- Based on all the above facts and trends, it makes business sense to sign long term PPAs for solar power at around Rs.7/unit (at plant which is bankable).
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